The Fourth Industrial Revolution Read online

  44 World Economic Forum, Collaborative Innovation – Transforming Business, Driving Growth, August 2015.

  http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Collaborative_Innovation_report_2015.pdf

  45 World Economic Forum, Global Information Technology Report 2015: ICTs for Inclusive Growth, Soumitra Dutta, Thierry Geiger and Bruno Lanvin, eds., 2015.

  46 World Economic Forum, Data-Driven Development: Pathways for Progress, January 2015

  http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEFUSA_DataDrivenDevelopment_Report2015.pdf

  47 Tom Saunders and Peter Baeck, “Rethinking Smart Cities From The Ground Up”, Nesta, June 2015. https://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/rethinking_smart_cities_from_the_ground_up_2015.pdf

  48 Carolina Moreno, “Medellin, Colombia Named ‘Innovative City Of The Year’ In WSJ And Citi Global Competition”, Huffington Post, 2 March 2013

  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/02/medellin-named-innovative-city-of-the-year_n_2794425.html

  49 World Economic Forum, Top Ten Urban Innovations, Global Agenda Council on the Future of Cities, World Economic Forum, October 2015.

  http://www3.weforum.org/docs/Top_10_Emerging_Urban_Innovations_report_2010_20.10.pdf

  50 Alex Leveringhaus and Gilles Giacca, “Robo-Wars – The Regulation of Robotic Weapons”, The Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict, The Oxford Martin Programme on Human Rights for Future Generations, and The Oxford Martin School, 2014. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/briefings/Robo-Wars.pdf

  51 James Giordano quoted in Tom Requarth, “This is Your Brain. This is Your Brain as a Weapon”, Foreign Policy, 14 September 2015.

  http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/14/this-is-your-brain-this-is-your-brain-as-a-weapon-darpa-dual-use-neuroscience/

  52 Manuel Castells, “The impact of the Internet on Society: A Global Perspective”, MIT Technology Review, 8 September 2014.

  http://www.technologyreview.com/view/530566/the-impact-of-the-internet-on-society-a-global-perspective/

  53 Credit Suisse, Global Wealth Report 2015, October 2015.

  http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=F2425415-DCA7-80B8-EAD989AF9341D47E

  54 OECD, “Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising”, 2011.

  http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/49499779.pdf

  55 Frederick Solt, “The Standardized World Income Inequality Database,” Working paper, SWIID, Version 5.0, October 2014.

  http://myweb.uiowa.edu/fsolt/swiid/swiid.html

  56 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger, Bloomsbury Press, 2009.

  57 Sean F. Reardon and Kendra Bischoff, “More unequal and more separate: Growth in the residential segregation of families by income, 1970-2009”, US 2010 Project, 2011.

  http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/Projects/Reports.htm

  http://cepa.stanford.edu/content/more-unequal-and-more-separate-growth-residential-segregation-families-income-1970-2009

  58 Eleanor Goldberg, “Facebook, Google are Saving Refugees and Migrants from Traffickers”, Huffington Post, 10 September 2015.

  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/facebook-google-maps-refugeesmigrants_55f1aca8e4b03784e2783ea4

  59 Robert M. Bond, Christopher J. Fariss, Jason J. Jones, Adam D. I. Kramer, Cameron Marlow, Jaime E. Settle, and James H. Fowler, “A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization”, Nature, 2 September 2012 (online).

  http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7415/full/nature11421.html

  60 Stephen Hawking, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, Frank Wilczek, “Stephen Hawking: ‘Transcendence looks at the implications of artificial intelligence – but are we taking AI seriously enough?”, The Independent, 2 May 2014.

  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-9313474.html

  61 Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever & the OpenAI team, “Introducing OpenAI”, 11 December 2015

  https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/

  62 Steven Levy, “How Elon Musk and Y Combinator Plan to Stop Computers From Taking Over”, 11 December 2015

  https://medium.com/backchannel/how-elon-musk-and-y-combinator-plan-to-stop-computers-from-taking-over-17e0e27dd02a#.qjj55npcj

  63 Sara Konrath, Edward O’Brien, and Courtney Hsing. “Changes in dispositional empathy in American college students over time: A meta-analysis.” Personality and Social Psychology Review (2010).

  64 Quoted in: Simon Kuper, “Log out, switch off, join in”, FT Magazine, 2 October 2015. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc76fce2-67b3-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html

  65 Sherry Turkle, Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in a Digital Age, Penguin, 2015.

  66 Nicholas Carr, The Shallows: How the Internet is changing the way we think, read and remember, Atlantic Books, 2010.

  67 Pico Iyer, The Art of Stillness: Adventures in Going Nowhere, Simon and Schuster, 2014.

  68 Quoted in: Elizabeth Segran, “The Ethical Quandaries You Should Think About the Next Time You Look at Your Phone”, Fast Company, 5 October 2015.

  http://www.fastcompany.com/3051786/most-creative-people/the-ethical-quandaries-you-should-think-about-the-next-time-you-look-at

  69 The term “contextual intelligence” was coined by Nihtin Nohria several years before he became the dean of Harvard Business School.

  70 Klaus Schwab, Moderne Unternehmensführung im Maschinenbau (Modern Enterprise Management in Mechanical Engineering), VDMA, 1971.

  71 Quoted in: Peter Snow, The Human Psyche in Love, War & Enlightenment, Boolarong Press, 2010.

  72 Daniel Goleman, “What Makes A Leader?”, Harvard Business Review, January 2004.

  https://hbr.org/2004/01/what-makes-a-leader

  73 Rainer Maria Rilke, Letters to a Young Poet, Insel Verlag, 1929.

  74 Voltaire wrote in French: “Le doute n’est pas une condition agréable, mais la certitude est absurde.” “On the Soul and God”, letter to Frederick William, Prince of Prussia, 28 November 1770, in S.G. Tallentyre, trans., Voltaire in His Letters: Being a Selection from His Correspondence, G.P. Putnam’s Sons, 1919.

  75 Martin Nowak with Roger Highfield, Super Cooperators: Altruism, Evolution, and Why We Need Each Other to Succeed, Free Press, 2012.

  76 World Economic Forum, Deep Shift – Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, Survey Report, Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software and Society, November 2015

  77 Borrowing from the concept of the yelp.com website, in that people would be able to provide reviews directly to others and those reviews would be recorded and/or shared online through chips implanted in them.

  78 “Echo chamber” connotes those who unquestioningly agree with another person or who repeat what other people have said without thinking or questioning.

  79 Internet live stats, “Internet users in the world”,

  http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/

  http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

  80 “Gartner Says Worldwide Traditional PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 4.2 Percent in 2014”, Gartner, 7 July 2014.

  http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2791017

  81 “Number of smartphones sold to end users worldwide from 2007 to 2014 (in million units)”, statista, 2015.

  http://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/globalsmartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/

  82 Lev Grossman, “Inside Facebook’s Plan to Wire the World,” Time, 15 December 2014.

  http://time.com/facebook-world-plan/

  83 “One Year In: Internet.org Free Basic Services,” Facebook Newsroom, 26 July 2015. http://newsroom.fb.com/news/2015/07/one-year-in-internet-org-free-basic-services/

  84 Udi Manber and Peter Norvig, “The power of the Apollo missions in a single Google search”, Google Inside Search, 28 August 2012.

  http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-
apollo-missions-in-single.html

  85 Satish Meena, “Forrester Research World Mobile And Smartphone Adoption Forecast, 2014 To 2019 (Global),” Forrester Research, 8 August 2014. https://www.forrester.com/ Forrester+Research+World+Mobile+And+Smartphone+Ad option+Forecast+2014+To+2019+Global/fulltext/-/E-RES118252

  86 GSMA, “New GSMA Report Forecasts Half a Billion Mobile Subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2020”, 6 November 2014.

  http://www.gsma.com/newsroom/press-release/gsma-report-forecasts-half-a-billion-mobile-subscribers-ssa-2020/

  87 “Processing Power Compared: Visualizing a 1 trillion-fold increase in computing performance”, Experts Exchange.

  http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/

  88 “A history of storage costs”, mkomo.com, 8 September 2009

  http://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte

  According to the website, data was retrieved from Historical Notes about the Cost of Hard Drive Storage Space (http://ns1758.ca/winch/winchest.html). Data from 2004 to 2009 was retrieved using Internet Archive Wayback Machine (http://archive.org/web/web.php).

  89 Elana Rot, “How Much Data Will You Have in 3 Years?”, Sisense, 29 July 2015. http://www.sisense.com/blog/much-data-will-3-years/

  90 Moore’s Law generally states that processor speeds, or the overall number of transistors in a central processing unit, will double every two years.

  91 Kevin Mayer, Keith Ellis and Ken Taylor, “Cattle Health Monitoring Using Wireless Sensor Networks”, Proceedings of the Communication and Computer Networks Conference, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2004.

  http://www.academia.edu/781755/Cattle_health_monitoring_using_wireless_sensor_networks

  92 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

  93 Will Knight, “This Robot Could Transform Manufacturing,” MIT Technology Review, 18 September 2012.

  http://www.technologyreview.com/news/429248/this-robotcould-transform-manufacturing/

  94 See http://www.stratasys.com/.

  95 Dan Worth, “Business use of 3D printing is years ahead of consumer uptake”, V3.co.uk, 19 August 2014.

  http://www.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/news/2361036/business-use-of-3d-printing-is-years-ahead-of-consumer-uptake

  96 “The 3D Printing Startup Ecosystem”, SlideShare.net, 31 July 2014.

  http://de.slideshare.net/SpontaneousOrder/3d-printing-startup-ecosystem

  97 Alban Leandri, “A Look at Metal 3D Printing and the Medical Implants Industry”, 3DPrint.com, 20 March 2015.

  http://3dprint.com/52354/3d-print-medical-implants/

  98 “The Need is Real: Data”, US Department of Health and Human Services, organdonor.gov. http://www.organdonor.gov/about/data.html

  99 “An image of the future”, The Economist, 19 May 2011.

  http://www.economist.com/node/18710080

  100 Jessica Hedstrom, “The State of 3D Printing”, 23 May 2015. http://jesshedstrom.quora.com/The-State-of-3D-Printing

  101 Maurizio Bellemo, “The Third Industrial Revolution: From Bits Back to Atoms”, CrazyMBA.Club, 25 January 2015.

  http://www.crazymba.club/the-third-industrial-revolution/

  102T.E. Halterman, “3D Printing Market Tops $3.3 Billion, Expands by 34% in 2014”, 3DPrint.com, 2 April 2015.

  http://3dprint.com/55422/3d-printing-market-tops-3-3-billion-expands-by-34-in-2014/

  103 Note: this tipping point was not a part of the original survey (Deep Shift – Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact, Survey Report, World Economic Forum, September 2015)

  104 Ibid.

  105 Fernandez A, Sriraman N, Gurewitz B, Oullier O (2015). Pervasive neurotechnology: A groundbreaking analysis of 10,000+ patent filings transforming medicine, health, entertainment and business. SharpBrains, USA (206 p.)

  http://sharpbrains.com/pervasive-neurotechnology/

  106 Oullier O (2012). Clear up this fuzzy thinking on brain scans. Nature, 483(7387), p. 7, doi: 10.1038/483007a

  http://www.nature.com/news/clear-up-this-fuzzy-thinking-on-brain-scans-1.10127

  Table of Contents

  Title

  Copyright

  Contents

  Introduction

  1. The Fourth Industrial Revolution

  1.1 Historical Context

  1.2 Profound and Systemic Change

  2. Drivers

  2.1 Megatrends

  2.1.1 Physical

  2.1.2 Digital

  2.1.3 Biological

  2.2 Tipping Points

  3. Impact

  3.1 Economy

  3.1.1 Growth

  3.1.2 Employment

  3.1.3 The Nature of Work

  3.2 Business

  3.2.1 Consumer Expectations

  3.2.2 Data-Enhanced Products

  3.2.3 Collaborative Innovation

  3.2.4 New Operating Models

  3.3 National and Global

  3.3.1 Governments

  3.3.2 Countries, Regions and Cities

  3.3.3 International Security

  3.4 Society

  3.4.1 Inequality and the Middle Class

  3.4.2 Community

  3.5 The Individual

  3.5.1 Identity, Morality and Ethics

  3.5.2 Human Connection

  3.5.3 Managing Public and Private Information

  The Way Forward

  Acknowledgements

  Appendix: Deep Shift

  1. Implantable Technologies

  2. Our Digital Presence

  3. Vision as the New Interface

  4. Wearable Internet

  5. Ubiquitous Computing

  6. A Supercomputer in Your Pocket

  7. Storage for All

  8. The Internet of and for Things

  9. The Connected Home

  10. Smart Cities

  11. Big Data for Decisions

  12. Driverless Cars

  13. Artificial Intelligence and Decision-Making

  14. AI and White-Collar Jobs

  15. Robotics and Services

  16. Bitcoin and the Blockchain

  17. The Sharing Economy

  18. Governments and the Blockchain

  19. 3D Printing and Manufacturing

  20. 3D Printing and Human Health

  21. 3D Printing and Consumer Products

  22. Designer Beings

  23. Neurotechnologies

  Notes